Payal Shah先生による研究報告
来週11月29日（火）15：00からPayal Shah先生（沖縄科学技術大学院大学）がお見えになり，研究成果をご報告して頂きます（残念ながら，ゼミの一環ですので非公開での報告になります）。＜Payal Shah先生の経歴＞
2004年にインドでMBAを取得後，アメリカのイリノイ大学で農業経済学に関する修士（2009）と博士（2013）を取得されています。学位取得後は，OIST（沖縄科学技術大学大学院）に勤務されています。
先生のご専門は，経済理論に基づいた自然資源管理政策の分析や環境変化に対する最適化戦略などを中心に行っており，その成果はResource and Energy Economics, Land Economics, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Conservation Biologyなどに掲載されています。
＜報告内容＞
Title
Evaluating Heterogeneous Conservation Effects of Forest Protection in Indonesia
Abstract
Establishing legal protection for forests is the most common policy used to limit forest loss. We evaluate the effectiveness of seven Indonesian (PA) introduced between 1999 and 2012. We also evaluate leakage, i.e. the change in forest cover in nearby areas, due to the establishment of the new PAs. We use a difference-in-differences approach comparing treated observations and matched controls to estimate the effect of protection in areas inside each PA and in districts immediately adjacent to these PAs. We explore how the effectiveness of these parks varies over space and we find that Indonesian PAs have mixed success in preserving forest cover. Our results show that Indonesian protection policy has been successful in Sebangau but clearly lacking in Tesso Nilo. Furthermore, we find substantial heterogeneity in the effectiveness of areas within a single park (i.e. Kerinci Seblat). We also find that Indonesian PAs have varying effects on leakage, with evidence of negative leakage in areas outside Sebangau and positive leakage in areas outside Tesso Nilo. We use a general equilibrium model to identify the key economic drivers of leakage and test these empirically. We find that leakage is positive and large in districts nearby PAs that have 1) a larger production of agricultural commodities with inelastic demand, 2) a larger portion of land that could have been used for agriculture but is set-aside for the new PAs, 3) a smaller fraction of land initially in agriculture and 4) a higher factor share of labor in agriculture.